Market Outlook 09-09-10

I commence with my humblest gratitude to The Most Benevolent, The Ultimate All-Knowing

The successful trader enters and exits the trade with a plan and potential high reward/low risk. Armed with the knowledge of time and price cycles, a trader can multiply the probability of the success of a trade, as compared to just a usual price-responsive trader.

As previously stated in the August 31 and September 01 forecasts, that due to the clustering of the multiple intermediate and short term, time cycles, it ought to create a "Change in Trend" and thus Reversal in the Financial Markets' Trend preceding these time cycles. (Please see the previous forecasts' charts)

Although, one has to keep in the mind the larger time cycles. However, rule of squaring of time and price cycles requires that if the larger time cycles have to manifest their strength (of CIT), a balancing of time and price has to have occurred before such manifestation.

Though, the long term trend is bearish and down, Markets sometime tend to confuse the traders and shake out the last of the buyers, before they could decidedly trend lower and break the previous low.

What does that mean: If the markets violate the pattern as indicated in the chart, then the markets shall try to create a lower double top and still fulfill my "forecast of serious decline", as the said forecast was based upon the April 26th Time Cycle top of year 2010.

Pre-requisite for such advance: Market must violate and then test the pattern (and stay closed above the level of pink circle) just shown in the chart herein above. During such advance, there shall be other time cycles creating retracements on its way above,of which I shall do my best, to keep you abreast of.

Market Outlook 09-08-10

I commence with my humblest gratitude to The Most Magnificent, The Ultimate All-Knowing

Expect the Un-Expected and talk about confusion (especially under Mercury retrograde, magnifying the illusion effect)

Some Stocks to Look At - A Good Trade Set-Up

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AMZN is setting up a very good trade, for short (puts) position. Risk to Reward is very low. I would consider front month to next month, 2 months and one or two strike away from the price, put options. Stop is just above the Friday's stop.

Market Forecast 09-07-10 follow up

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Markets gapped and continuing the decline. Time Cycle which started with Crude Oil on the 3rd, got reinforced by the median of the strength of the several time cycles, over the weekend.

Market Forecast 09-07-10

I commence with my humblest gratitude to The Most Benevolent, The Ultimate All-Knowing of all hidden and obvious known, past, present and future

Remember the following chart

We have reached that price level (so indicated on the chart) and even went passed it by a little "lost motion" amount, under the Mercury Retrograde influence  making people think that oh! oh!, forget about all the bad news, we are going higher and higher, all this doom talkers have no validity..............). (fast quick rally, (predicted on the chart and the August 31st and September 1st forecasts, as well, please see the chart below, previously shown on 08-31)

The Friday's price cycle came within the time band of 09-3rd time cycle and another time cycles coming after today close and tomorrow (September 08th). That means that we have a time cycle band average focusing on and during the long weekend time, when the US markets were closed. Thus we may have triggered the reversal CIT over the weekend. 

I, therefore, shall be watching and looking out for reversal starting from September 07 open, to go short.

Market Forecast - Time Cycles coming in on Sept 3rd - Change in Trend is Expected - UPDATE

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Time Cycles affects some financial markets more than others. Price cycles, sometime, offer resistance to the time cycle. However, eventually, the effects of time cycle will show up, even if delayed by price cycle.Click on the chart to enlarge

Market Forecast - Time Cycles coming in on Sept 3rd - Change in Trend is Expected

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Time Cycles Ingress on September 3rd - Shall Create a CIT:
There are 3 time cycles, coming in on September 3rd. I expect them to create a Change in Trend. Thus, I shall be watching 30min and 60min charts for the clues, from the midday of today.

Market Forecast - 08-31-10, After the Close of Markets - Follow Up

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The Forecast of "Time Cycles Squaring and Clustering, A Strong Move is Expected" - UPDATE:
With The Grace of Almighty, Markets followed the forecast exactly on the date predicted. It is again only due to His Blessings.

Market Forecast - 08-31-10, After the Close of Markets

I commence with my humblest gratitude to The Most Benevolent, The Ultimate All-Knower for the gift of knowledge and ability to share

Time Cycles Squaring and Clustering, A Strong Move is Expected:

Market has been stuck for last few days within very tight price range. IT is caused by the squaring and clustering of (several) intermediate and small time cycles, and thus failure of price to move in either direction for last Five (05) trading days, has accumulated the built-up momentum inside the price. Therefore, a strong price move is expected. I have posted a chart for prudent entries for long or short, both have not been triggered yet. I am expecting an entry to be triggered on September 1st, based upon the Completion of Time Cycles Squaring and Clustering. (Please click on the chart to enlarge)

Market Outlook - ALERT 08-31-10 Update @ 11.40 PST

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Markets are showing inherit weakness, pursuant to the long term forecast, as previously published. Bigger time cycles are ruling the markets.

Market Outlook - ALERT 08-31-10

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Today is the last day of month, there has to be short covering, thus it may create a reversal pattern, whether a "fake" one or real one. Tomorrow price action shall tell. For now, it is prudent to watch these level to enter short or long

GOLD Market Forecast Follow Up

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I had posted gold commodity forecast, in which, one requirement to break through level was either gap up (for GLD) or strong up bullish bar (as gold is traded 24 hours). Of course, we got the later.

GOLD Market Forecast Follow Up

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In my previous analysis of the Gold Commodity Market, I have pointed out that $1,237 (+/-$8) was an important NHN (Natural Harmonic Number). A break with strength to break out and above this level, is required for Gold to continue its high fly-ride to new higher prices. Failure to do so, shall bring in very sizable decline of at least 10-20%.  I shall post the price target later.

Please see the Gold update. I have enclosed weekly chart, to reduce the noise of the market gyration and to give up better perspective.

Current Market Outlook - Get Ready for The Decline, I have been Warning about!! - Update 08-30-10

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That was the headline of the forecast dated August 10th, 2010. Since then, we had declined over 700 points in the Dow and 90 points in the SPX, and 210 point in the NASDAQ. In the said forecast, I stated that we have a serious decline at our hand.

One of the favorite charts, W.D. Gann used, is the Weekly Chart. It clears the noise from the daily gyration and it is rather the 2nd most helpful chart in determination of the trend, if not the best one. Let's see the update of the markets with the help of the weekly charts.

Market Outlook 08-29-10

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Markets did find some support last week at the forecasted levels of prices and within the time cycle as expected. However, if the market does break below the $58.50 level then we shall even more serious decline, coming.

Previous Forecasts Updates (08-28-10)

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I have published these forecasts follow up on August 10th on both the market and RIMM respectively, and results have been quite impressing, only due to The Blessings of The Creator

and Results thereafter, only due to the Blessings of The All-Knower;

Current Market Outlook 08-27-10 Update @ 12.31 PM PST

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Market rose, then dropped and took out the low of within last 3 days, and rising higher, again at the EOD.
It is happening within one day of time cycle ingress!!, Could it be a reversal to the upside?? To be prudent, no positions are held over the weekend.!!

Current Market Outlook 08-27-10 Update

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Markets have opened higher a few points as compared to yesterday's close. However have failed to violate the "Tasuki Pattern".

Current Market Outlook 08-26-10 - Short Lesson in Trading

I commence with my humblest gratitude to The Most Benevolent, The Ultimate All-Knower. The words of following material is borrowed from the internet (Candlestickforum).

Downside Tasuki Gap

Description
The Downside Tasuki Gap is found during a declining trend. A black candle forms after gapping down from the previous black candle. The next day opens higher and closes higher than the previous day's open. If the gap is not filled, the bears have maintained control. If the gap was filled, then the bearish momentum has come to an end. If the gap is not filled, it is time to go short.

Criteria

1. A downtrend is in progress. A gap occurs between two candles of the same color.
2. The color of the first two candles is the same as the prevailing trend.
3. The third day, an opposite color candlestick opens within the previous candle, and closes below the previous open.
4. The third day close does not fill the gap between the two candles.
5. The last two candles, opposite colors, are usually about the same size.

Pattern Psychology

The Japanese put significance into gaps. When one appears in the middle of the trend and is not able to fill itself on strength the next day, the momentum is still in the downtrend. The bounceup day should be construed as being a short-covering day. After the short covering disappears, the selling continues.

Gap above the last candlestick bar, shall violate the pattern. Instead, it shall become another pattern, guess what?.................. Yes, you are right. "Island Cluster Reversal".
Please see my previous posts to refresh what does Island Cluster Reversal means, recent decline was started from it.

Current Market Outlook 08-25-10

I commence with my humblest gratitude to The Most Benevolent, The Ultimate All-Knower

All Praises and Glory are exclusively reserved for His Gracious and His Magnificence. See the follow up of this morning forecast. Thank You My Creator, for giving me the ability to share your gift.

Current Market Outlook 08-25-10

I commence with my humblest gratitude to The Most Benevolent, The Ultimate All-Knower

Markets found some support yesterday and today at the price level, watched by many and with lots of stops below it, which in return caused the buying at the said level. We may a rally up-to the levels as indicated on the charts. However, based upon the price/time cycles, markets are not done with the current leg of decline, and each rally shall be met with selling.

Some Previous Forecasts

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I was going through some of my notes and my previous forecasts.
Do you remember these forecasts on APOL and AAPL around 04-23 and 04-21 respectively. (click on the link to review the old forecasts)

Just Due to The Creator's Blessings, again the results have been phenomenal.

AAPL Forecast Follow UP

I commence with my humblest gratitude to The Most Benevolent, The Ultimate All-Knower of hidden and obvious

Thanks are entirely reserved for The Most Gracious, my AAPL forecast on August 10th, came to fruition. Second lower target was achieved today. See the forecast and results thus far.

GOLD Market Update 08-23-10

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Gold gapped down today at the open and after dropping over $16.00 within less than couple of hours, it found a support a 50-MA and 21-EMA. However, it still formed a hammer near the recent top. Please see the attached chart.

GOOG Forecast 8-17 - Follow Up

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GOOG had dropped over $35.00 since my forecast. Thanks only due to The Most Gracious, The Almighty

GOLD Market Forecast - Price Cycle Squared with Time Cycles, Correction Ahead!!!

I commence with my humblest gratitude to The Most Benevolent, The Ultimate All-Knower of All hidden and obvious, past, present and future.

Gold is following the financial markets, with some lag or lead time. Gold has been squaring its price cycles at the lows and highs. Based upon this recent high/low squaring, Gold has completed its squaring of its recent high, it confluenced within the time cycles band. Thus I expect a serious correction and/or decline in the gold price. $1,149 (+/-$8), is the first support zone area.  (Two consecutive closes $8 above $1,237 shall negate the recent time/price cycle squaring (which I doubt very much, but it is good to know our stop-out level).

Market Forecast - UPDATE 08-23-10

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Short position were triggered on hourly chart and daily chart, also. Today's low was lower than both previous bars.
Today, Market gapped up, and satisfied the rally requirement due to the time cycle ingress, and to start heading lower. 
As a matter of fact, today's range of the bar is 2% (on NASDAQ), from high to the low of the today's price range. 
I have entered short (puts) positions just before the market closed.

Market Forecast - UPDATE

I commence with my humblest gratitude to The Most Benevolent, The Ultimate All-Knower of hidden and obvious

Markets are being controlled by my long term time cycles forecast. "I stated earlier that smaller time cycle shall attempt to create a rally." But I also added " Just remember one thing that every rally is a candidate for selling/ shorting, and or adding to the short positions." That rally MUST be considered a higher profitable and lower risk trading opportunity to short at better prices."

Market are (in some markets have already broken through) about to break through the support at the trend-lines as indicated in my previously posted charts

AAPL Forecast 08-21

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Current Market Outlook 08-21-10

I commence humbly with my gratitude to The Most Gracious and The Ultimate All-Knower for the countless blessings, including the knowledge and ability to share.

Time Cycles Coming In to Create a Bounce:
Market has been falling since my forecast from week of Aug 9th. As we know, nothing goes straight up or down. If we have price going in one direction, completely until a time cycle hits, then price ought to reverse.  Therefore, it is expected that markets shall find a reason to rally up (Time Cycles cause the news), though it shall be (ought to) short-lived (most probably up-to August 25th afternoon). I shall looking for the weakness from 08-24 afternoon. Just remember one thing that every rally is a candidate for selling/shorting, and or adding to the short positions, unless previous my stance of big correction and/or crash is proven wrong.