Stock Markets Update 07-01-11

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Market Indices have reached at the levels, which are the ceilings, as resistance, and it is happening within the time cycle alignment with the price. Time cycles are being squared.

Therefore, Next Week is down week. Today's is (or Monday for Asian and European Markets) is the top of the swing high day.

Some Stocks to Look at - (a peek inside my trading room) - MA, AAPL, HPQ

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MA has galloped on the news, now it is time to short it. For example, Buying Jul11 $295.00 PUT @ 3.60 Limit to Open.

AAPL has advanced to a certain price level which is offering resistance and more importantly it is occurring within its time cycle of reversal. I am buying Jul11 $325.00 PUT @ $2.38 Limit to Open or more aggressively Buy 10 Jul11 320.00 PUT @ 1.49 Limit to Open

HPQ has created a strong reversal pattern, trade example: Buy Jul11 36.00 PUT @ $.42 Limit to Open

Always using proper management to protect the trading capital is advised by applying strategic "stop-the-trade" policy, when trade is not in favor.

Some Stocks to Look at - (a peek inside my trading room) - LNKD, BIDU, NFLX

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The LNKD trade was stopped out, only to have come back and closed at my stop level. Failure from the close of yesterday, will trigger a short again. I shall be aggressively short on LNKD from these levels, with stop of yesterday high or today's high (which ever is lower)

Should I trust and Invest into the Current Rally?

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Big Question in the mind of trader of the financial markets is, "Should I trust and Invest into the Current Rally"?

Markets have finally surpassed the resistance of 06/21, but it is now, also entering into a danger zone, which would have been averted, if the decline had continued, and selling momentum would have evaporated eventually within next few days.

However, after the rally, the selling will come with renewed energy, and severity. It shall be ruthless, this time. Current rally would cause to develop a "Major Pattern of Head and Shoulder" and thus result in bigger decline eventually to follow after this rally has ended. Therefore, current rally is a "B" leg of the "ABC \/\". The consequential decline, wave "C", shall start, after the completion of the "B" wave, which shall be very soon. According to my time cycle analysis, I foresee July 1st to July 5th window to be aligning up with price cycles.

Please see the attached chart of NASDAQ Composite Index, It is heading into the major resistance of 2,760, 2780, which is at 61.8% level of the recent wave "A" down from May 2nd high to the June 16th low. Final wall of resistance rests at 2,800 and 2,820 areas, which are 70.70% and 78.60 retracement from the 05/02 high. Once market enters into the 2,780 area, it would have completed the required height of the left shoulder. The neckline rests at 2,600 area. Upon the successful completion of the left shoulder and subsequent decline, could target the 2,462 and then further lower target of 2,340.

Now let's look at the Standard & Poor 500 Index, SPX. My targets for the current rally are 1,315, 1,322 and final ceiling at 1,328 area. These resistances mark the 50% and 61.8% retracement from the May 2nd high. I think that 1,315 (+/-) could be a strong resistance, rather a reversal pivot, as it squares the price of SPX, from both pivots of  05/02 high and 06/16 low. 
Upon successful completion of the head and shoulder pattern, my support targets are 1,220, and 1,205. When the further decline ensues, the next support targets are at 1,190, 1,176, 1,150 area.

Stock Markets Update 6-29-11

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The Big Question?

I am being asked that what if, the market gaps above the SPX $1,299 level (takes out my stop for short trade) and stays above the level, as my pre-requisite for reversal to the upside.

Then I have already stated the time cycle is coming in on July 1st for change in trend, which I was expecting to be low, but if the markets goes higher on Wednesday and takes out the stops and trade and closes above (without making any doji bar, the indecision bar) then market shall continue its rally till 07/1 and 07/05., till July 4th weekend. Then a reversal of the trend shall occur to start the 2nd leg down. I assume that market going higher shall stall at 61.8% (66.66% for DJI) or 70.7% (for NASDAQ) and that would coincide with the CIT of July 4th weekend.

Gold and Silver Markets' Forecast 06-28-11

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If you have read my previous forecasts, I have published forecast of a sever decline in Gold and especially Silver, with exact date and price for Gold and Silver, before Gold went higher to $1,577 and Silver went to $49.84.

Now, please see the attached chart.

I must say that if you could handle the gyration, then you shall see Gold going to test the $1,450 (even lower at $1,434-$1,438) area before it would make an intermediate bottom for another trend higher.

Please look also, at the momentum; it has to make a higher low with the lower prices to declare a bottom.

Silver shall follow along the gold. Silver has lost its luster. It shall gather that shine, once again, after, Silver finds its bottom. Then Silver shall make another run higher, much higher. Bottom shall be created for the both metals by Gold trend reversal.

Remain Blessed

Stock Market Update - 6-28-11 @ 3.08 PM

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Please look at the chart enclosed. If you ignore the out of the ordinary long volume bar, the volume is dropping, while price is going higher. An hourly inverted hammer at decreade volume, with and 50% retracement. The best and prudent strategy is selling right here and with stops at above the HOD.

I received an email, questioning my bearish stance, what if I am wrong!
Yes, I have been wrong before, (less times that I've been right :-)
The Only way market can get out of this JAM, is to gap above the SPX 1,299 level. Otherwise, it shall pull back hard.

Some Stocks to Look at - (a peek inside my trading room) - LNKD, BIDU, NFLX

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MarketWatch headlines states, " IPO underwriters start social-network firm with buy ratings"

Well, we know, there are no such thing as Ethics on Wall Street Firms. Those who market the IPO, would like their customers to get out at higher prices, before it drops again. WOW

I am going short LinkedIn (symbol: LNDK) with stop just above $87.50
Two more trades from my trading room, BIDU is at its DNA reversal area, I am buying  Jul11 $125.00 PUT @ 1.30 Limit  to Open and NFLX I am buying Jul11 240.00 PUT @ $1.75 Limit  to Open.  Stops just above the HOD. Short many other big Tech Names!!1

Stock Market UPDATE - 6-28-11

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US stock markets (so are world's other stock markets) are approaching resistance, levels, as indicated in my previous posts, at a thin volume. I am either in cash or scaling in shorts till the end of the day, with stop at just above the 06/22 highs. Actually, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has risen to its 4th test of "now very important" resistance — the April low of 1,294 (or the 06/22 high of $1,299) — and the markets reaction to this area should set the very near future market trend.

Learning How to Trade Commodities and Stock Markets

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Stock Markets Update 6-27-11

I commence with my gratitude to The All-Knower

Markets rallied today. However, it was lackluster, with any commitment of big buyers. The rally was actually a "ball bouncing off (the last bounce)" the 200-days MA, very last time, before it dropped in a water-fall fashion.
I have previously published and showed you the use of 3-days charts, it was Gann's the most favorite swing chart to determine the direction of trend. According to the 3-days chart theory, (like other charts), recent swing has to be taken out in a 3-days chart, before a trend-reversal in confirmed [Market has to take out (and stay above) the June 22nd high (in some cases, 06/23 high to reverse the trend.]

All of the recent rallied occurred on thin volume, especially today's. Which usually big boys use to sell last time at better prices, before the market is dropped again. Please look at the enclosed SPX chart , it clearly shows that Selling pressure always exceeded the buying and the last "down red bar" engulfed the previous green bar.  Now if you look at the hourly chart of SPY, the S&P ETF, it clearly indicates that the gap has created a big resistance.

Now please look at the NYSE Composite Index hourly chart it shows a "divergence in selling pressure at equal prices",  which also, foretells that more selling is coming. Also look at the 2 hourly chart of NYSE, it also confirms that more selling is on its way, before a bottom can be put in.

Gold and Silver Markets' Forecast Update

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Last week, once again Gold/Silver Forecasting Subscription was very profitable to the Subscribers. (plz click on the pictures). Gold has dropped over $45 since the "Short Alert".

Last night, again, in the Weekly Forecast Update, subscribers were alerted to go short again, if there is rally on 06/27 AM. Rally did occur and shorting was the only prudent strategy. Please see the charts below!

If you would like to inquire about Forecasting Subscription Service, Please send an email to TRADE.N.HARMONY@GMAIL.COM

Stock Market Forecast update 6-27-11

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Markets did turn around as expected exactly on the date of the turn.
Although, a sign of relief,...as far as my prediction is concerned. But it worries me that an innocent trader shall be trapped taking this rally. Why?
Stay tuned for detailed analysis later this evening.'

Stock Market Forecast of 6-22-11 - Update

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US Stock markets have dropped despite the big rally (1.5% to 2.2%) in the Asian Markets. If you watching Asian Markets and then European Markets (up-to 1.75% higher) overnight, then you would have doubted my forecast of further decline to come. But it happened again according to my forecast. Thanks only to Dear Almighty for The Blessings of insight.

If you remember, in one of my time cycle forecasts, I have indicated a time cycle ingress on the weekend (06/24 to 06/27). If the market does not reverse during this time cycle (Monday the latest) then the decline shall continue until July 4th weekend. If market continue to drop from Monday, it shall be quick and sever one!!
Look for the price targets in my previous posts.

My Humblest Gratitude To You

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But I must pay my humblest gratitude to All of You for your Consistent Support. Thank you. (click on the picture to enlarge)

Stock Market UPDATE - 6-23-11

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Selling every rally, whether a multi-days swing or intra-day high, is THE ONLY PRUDENT TRADER strategy.

Selling shall continue, it is just the beginning of second leg down!! (stops are just above the high of 06-21 or 6-22, if the market turns around)

Markets Act in Predictable Manner - Stay Tuned for An Important Update -- UPDATE

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When you let The God and Universe let answer for you, then you don't need to.

Skeptics, today were answered by the Market's Action.
Yesterday, I had issued an alert for an important update.
I had alerted my subscribers to go short Crude, Gold/Silver, Stock Markets Yesterday!!


Sell off is across the board throughout the world and all markets, including Metals and Crude Oil and it is to Continue

Financial Market Time Cycles Update

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I am analyzing the Dow Jones Transportation, for a reason. It has been like a trend leader, not a laggard, like QQQ or NASDAQ.

A reader complained that I predicted a swing low on 06/13, and then I reversed my position. If someone looks at my posts without a BIAS, then he/she would know that I am trader, not an investor, and my God-Bestowed-Gift (not my talent, but It Is A Blessings of The Creator He Can Turn that gift off, any time, When He Wishes to do so) is picking the lows and highs for maximum probability of profitability with the least risk (closer stops). As you shall see that 06/13 was "the low" for DJ-20 (see attached chart and same is true for Russell 2K). However, S&P-500 and other indices especially NASDAQ really had last strong shake-up and sell-off after 06/13. Thus was my alert issued on 06/14 to go short again, until I reversed my short position on 06/16. I have certain pre-requisite to qualify for change in the trend and price has to act in certain fashion to confirm the change in trend. Mind you that 06/16 was a swing low. However, Stock markets did perform a retest of that swing low (and most market leader did make a lower low even) after 06/16.

Now coming back to today's (and yesterday analysis)!
DJ Transportation, just made inverted hammer @ 61.8% retracement from 5/2 high and 70.70% retracement from 5/19 high. Not only it got rejected at 50-days MA, but also its momentum has risen beyond previous crests' levels, thus creating a divergence. (BTW 6/13 was a turn date on this index)
Russell 2K, just made inverted hammer @ 38.2% retracement from 5/2 high and 50% retracement from 5/31 high and 21-days MA rejected the index (BTW 6/13 was a turn date, but 6/16 retested and become double bottom)

Nothing needs to be added to my previous post (click red link to read), pertaining to (DJI and) S&P 500, as it dropped exactly from yesterday highs (again a price level indicated by me). Nasdaq Composite went within 6 points of my indicated resistance of 2,700 and sold off today. I expected the rally to last 3-5 trading days, thus a turn date of 06/24, matching with my CIT turn. However, if we consider a low from 06/16, then rally has lasted for 4 days or (5days, if we take the high of today as swing high) or 7 trading days, if we consider 06/13 as swing low. Mean of both swing lows (13th or 16th) is (4+7)/2=5.2 days.
Has the pre-condition of rally within a downtrend been satisfied? Probably astounding, yes. However, I will prefer the tomorrow price action to confirm it, too.
Remember we are in down trend. and stock markets always experience relief rallies.

YES, the prudent strategy was being in cash yesterday at EOD, ... My biased reader! :-).
On this link I have assembled all of my forecasts starting 04/25/11, which had fore-warned the (serious and sincere) readers of my FREE blog-site, for impending change-in-trend of the markets. Click the link here

What does this analysis mean to you : There is highest probability that we have swing high put in and another leg down about to start. Unless the market Gaps above the today's highs, and stays and trades above and closes above the today's high.

Markets Act in Predictable Manner - Stay Tuned for An Important Update This Evening!

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Stay Tuned for An Important Update This Evening!