Stock Market Forecast Update

I commence with my gratitude to The Creator.

In my May 13th post, I had stated. " There are many time cycles converging during the time frame of 2nd to 3rd week of May (May 14-21). Thus this juncture of time (especially around the time of May 20-21) will be crucial to watch. Why, because Markets are running on fumes, there is no gas left in the tank. Time Cycles are over due for a serious decline,"

Some laughed at me and some heeded to my alert. 
May 21st was the day, when markets made their highest high and SPX opened at 1,666, made a low at 1,662 and closed at 1,669 a measly one point above my target of 1,668, exactly on my time cycle date.

The next day markets rallied on empty tank of gas and then fell flat on their noses. As one of my readers rightly pointed out, NASDAQ fell real hard.  It had lost 2% from its high of the day. The selling, then, continued across the globe. Nikkei tumbled real bad. After all said and done, Nikkei has fallen 7% thus far (at time of the writing this post, see attached pics) in one day (2% up and then dropped 5.1%). Currencies followed the suit.

One thing to notice that big boys bailed out in a big way, :-).
SPY turn over was 243.6 million shares and after hours another 18.65, that is the largest sell off day in number of shares since November 9, 2012. Similarly Powershare QQQ shares turn over was 59.8 million plus 2.47 million after hours traded while its . SPD Financial XLF turn over was 96. millions with 688,695 shares traded after hours, that was the largest down day since 11/07/2012. Big DJI turn over was 171.85 million shares and that was the largest turn over in months. To give you the perspective normal trading volume on DJI is about 100-125 million shares or trading volume 50-period moving average lies around 128million, and QQQ trading volume 50-period moving average lies around 32 million shares. XLF financial Sector index turn over was the twice of its normal trading volume of about 45 million shares.

Finally, look at the low prices of yesterday low on all indices. How far did price fall to...
Market drops in one day and such drop brings it down to the price level of May 14. 

Is that coincidence? No. 

Please check my forecast dated May 13th. Price/Time Cycle squaring started on May 14. Markets tried to go higher, but it was a fake move and one day drop of the markets brings them down to the price levels of May 14, the start band of time cycle. Market price actions are telling you, even though markets experienced a "lost motion" in prices, but real price was 1,662-1,666 range, rest was just fumes and making retail investors more complacent.

Financial Markets Forecast Update

I commence with my gratitude to The Creator

When The CRASH of the Markets to Begin?

Everybody is anxious to know, if the price target was correct. 

Well there is concept about price, coined by Master Trader W.D. Gann, it is called LOST MOTION.

Let me just quote from his book, "“As there is lost motion in every kind of machinery, so there is lost motion in the stock market due to momentum, which drives a stock slightly above or below a resistance level. The average lost motion is 1 7/8 points.  

When a stock is very active and advances or declines fast on heavy volume, it will often go from 1 to 1 7/8 points above a halfway point or other strong resistance level and not go 3 points. The same rule applies on a decline. It will often pass an important resistance point by 1 7/8 points but not go 3 full points beyond it. ” (W. D. Gann Stock Market Course, chapter 10). 

Now let me give away one of my secrets, on how to calculate the lost motion on any price. Since the markets have evolved greatly over the period of 80 years, since the active days of trading of W. D. Gann, so have the rules of price cycle and time cycles. At that time Dow Jones Industrial Index was trading at 100-200 price range. I, therefore, multiply the price attained by the technical or geometrical/mathematical patterns and then multiply it with 1.875% and up-to 2.236%. For example, the price target of 1,668 multiplied by 1.875% gives you 31.27 points. I, therefore, shall add 31.27 to 1,668, which gives me a price lost motion target of 1,699 to allow "the price move" beyond my price target.

Therefore, I ought to be patient to see, if price moves any price up to 1,697-1,699 and reverses, then the price target generated by mathematical pattern is correct. So next couple of days, are very important, giving 3 days lost motion margin for the time cycle, with the price lost motion allowed a price below 1,699 area.

Financial Markets Forecast Update

I commence with my gratitude to The Creator

When The CRASH of the Markets to Begin?

People send me all kinds of emails, some with positive feedback and some with derogatory comments. I always ignore negative energy comments (although I always pay close attention to constructive criticism). But I must answer one comment, where someone said that "Syed's Creator has left him". That was such a dumb comment that I could not ignore. Creator NEVER leaves his creations, it is us, who leave, betray our pledge as his creation and defy His Rules. Then we complain about the situations of our lives, which we did not want, but we invited them through our negative energy. My Creator NEVER leaves me. He is Always with me, all the time.

There are many time cycles converging during the time frame of 2nd to 3rd week of May (May 14-21). Thus this juncture of time (especially around the time of May 20-21) will be crucial to watch. Why, because Markets are running on fumes, there is no gas left in the tank. Time Cycles are over due for a serious decline, more time passes by, severity of the market drop shall be enhanced/increased. If the SPX price reaches around 1662-1668 by said dates, price/time cycle squaring shall occur and then, all bulls better get out of the way.

Stock Market CRASH Forecast Update

I commence with my gratitude to The Creator.

When Will The Dramatic Drop in The Stock Market Begin?

Since the posting of this forecast, I have received  hundred+ emails, of all kinds, good or bad ones.

Most of them asking for more clarification, as my previous post was ambiguous to some. It was correctly pointed out to me that I need to elaborate on the previous post.

I am asked, " Do I see an immediate drop in the stock market.?" Then how long the drop shall last, as I was not very clear?

Let me say something, before I answer the questions. Whenever, I write my posts or alert, I am always in the  "state", where I visually see markets reacting in certain fashion, then within the same state, I try to write, what I am looking at. I am trying to look at some event into the future and I am trying to make a note of it. That is the reason, one may find that, some of my posts are not best examples of English writings . Nevertheless, ,my goal, at said juncture, is to caption as soon as I possible, while I am still in y vision.

Of course, I am using my forecasting tools at the same time, while dropping into the said state. 

Now coming back to the questions. I was looking at the weekly chart, when I saw and wrote about the drop of the stock markets. Therefore number 34 (or 36) and 45 meant weekly bars, i.e., the drop shall, at least, last for that many weeks. I see another number of 56.60 weeks. Thus, whenever the stock market starts to  decline, I shall start counting the weeks and look for the price target of $580.

When to expect the end of the stock market current rally?. As I said in my previous post, certain price cycle targets have not been met, although, time cycles are over-due for the decline. Mathematical and geometrical patterns called for the price targets of 1,662-1,668, which has not achieved. therefore markets may continue to edge higher, though on the borrowed time. 

Stock Market CRASH Forecast 05-03-13

I commence with my gratitude to The Creator.

When Will The Dramatic Drop in The Stock Market Begin?

That is the question, or something similar, I receive emails sent over to me, some with anguish why markets are not dropping like waterfall (it seems, some people got in with short with both feet, without getting the technical confirmation.).

Well, That is the reason is this post. 

Let me just say this, price has fallen behind from the time cycle or in other words, the price cycles are delaying the time cycle trigger. According to my calculation, S&P-500 should have reached $1,662-1,668 level by today (May 3/6, 2013), if the market were to continue keep going higher beyond April 15th turn date, and til today. My price/time cycle squaring model called for a price level of $1,660-1,662 by April 15th. Which we did not receive. Market did stalled around/on said date (which was my time cycle turn date) and market chart made a inverted hammer (on weekly time frame). 

Let me add that big time cycle was triggered on April 15th and May 3-6th date is (medium/small weight) time cycle. Today is the date (May 3-6) , when stock markets are making big headlines. 

Are These Headlines are the the Last Happy News Headlines or One of the Last Ones?

Time Will Tell, however, more delay in the market's drop is created by manipulation, more fierce shall be the drop, and then the target for the bear market shall keep on increasing by "TWO S&P points per month. My price target for S&P will blow the bulls' minds away.

October 6, 2014, S&P target $580.00 (+/-) or let me rephrase it.

The drop will be the sharpest and fastest decline, stock market history has ever seen. It shall last between 34 to 45 (trading) bars or multiple thereof these numbers. and price target remains the same (+/- few points)